Poisonous Predictions



There are no sure things in life. That’s about the only thing I’m sure of. California Chrome did not win the Triple Crown. Dewey did not beat Truman.

So I wish the pundits would stop giving the Republicans control of Congress. It’s only September, folks. The polls don’t open till November.

I never thought much of Jay Carney. I didn’t like him when he was President Obama’s press secretary and I don’t like him now that he is a CNN analyst. I like him even less this morning after reading that he predicts the Democrats will get a thrashing in the impending midterm elections.

Carney is not alone. Far from it. The dispiriting refrain is everywhere. Even the begging emails I get from various Democrats have a desperate ring to them.

Have these people never heard of self-fulfilling prophecies? Or are they intentionally sabotaging their party’s chances?

If they keep up their defeatist lament, we the Democratic voters could lose heart and stay home. Their dire prophecy would be fulfilled in spades.

What’s really sad is the wonkish reasoning behind the defeatist predictions. Like so many others, Carney’s argument is based on historical generalizations, not on the issues of the day. He says, for example, that the sixth year is “always” bad for a president’s party and several Senate seats now held by Democrats happen to be in states that traditionally vote Republican.

I’ve seen that reasoning before. But “states” don’t vote and the past is not “always” prelude to the future.

It’s people who vote. And the American people have an overwhelming case against the Republicans. The vast majority of American women, for example. Whether they live in a red state, a blue state, a purple state or a polka dot state, how can any American woman vote for a party that has demonstrated such disregard for her rights and such contempt for her as a human being?

How about American students? If you were a student would you vote for the party that is working overtime to keep those exorbitant interest rates on your student loan?

You know that black Americans have recognized that the Republican Party is a fortress of white privilege – even white supremacy. Check those history books the pundits like to quote and you’ll find the vast majority of America’s black voters opt for the Democratic candidate every time.

Do you also know that Hispanic voters are recognizing they have no future in a Republican America? The Republicans have made it abundantly clear whose side they’re on. And it’s not on the side of the Hispanics, that’s for sure.

I could go on and on. First Nation Americans, would-be immigrants of every nationality – and their relatives – how could they vote Republican? That also goes for civil servants, teachers, firefighters, law officers, trade union members, fast food workers, the sick, the unemployed, the poor, gays, marijuana smokers… The Republicans have thumbed their noses at them all.

The Grand Old Party is firmly in the camp of just one constituency – white privilege. Make that male, white privilege. In fact, make that straight, male, white privilege (especially straight, white, male, religious bigots)… and not the straight, white, bigoted, male students, either – not unless the students can afford to pay for their education up front.

The way I see it, hardly anybody has any reason to vote Republican. Not even the rich, white, male bigots in their cocoon of privilege. If they have any sense, they must realize their days of wine and roses are numbered. The lopsided economic and social system on which they rely cannot survive forever. Le deluge is coming unless there is radical reform. And soon.

Yu want my my prediction for November? Here it is: Democrats win it all. Republicans lose. (But only if we the people get out and vote.)

Click for Carney’s prediction.