In case you haven’t turned on the TV today, there’s a big debate tonight in Tampa. Yes, folks, gather round the set and see the Great Eight perform their amazing tricks. It’s another performance by those titans of television, the “major” Republican presidential candidates for 2012. That’s right, major – as in Herman Cain and Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul and Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry and … let’s see, did I leave out anybody? Oh yes, Newt Gingrich!

How could I have forgotten Newt? He’s getting a robust 4 percent of the Republican vote, according to the polls. That puts him in a dead heat with Cain and ahead of Santorum’s 3 percent… And way ahead of Huntsman, who is managing a scant 1 percent.

Click here for poll numbers.

Does anyone doubt that the only two candidates left in this race are Perry (who is way ahead) and Romney? Does anyone think Cain is going to be carrying the Republican flag next November? Or Bachmann? Or Santorum? Or Huntsman? Or Ron Paul?

(OMG!, I forgot Newt again.)

The polls have spoken. And it’s Perry (above, right) in the lead with Romney several lengths behind.

Unless…

Unless Perry somehow manages to blow it. He’s talking dirty about Social Security, for example. And a lot of codgers live in Florida. Will he extricate his big, ol’ Texas boot from his mouth tonight?

I bet he will. I bet he’s smart enough to reassure the codgers. (I know he’s not very smart, but even an old cowhand like him can figure this one out.) He’s going to say something like, shucks,  I wasn’t meanin’ no disrespec’ to Social security. Heck, I love the durn thang. I jus’ don’ think them city slickers is handlin’ it right. Leave it to me an’ I’ll set ‘er straight right quick.

Words to that effect, anyway.

And a lot of codgers will believe him.

We here in Florida should know by now what will happen if the Republicans get complete control of Washington. We (well not me personally) elected a Republican governor named Rick Scott (yep, another Rick). And look where it got us. The state’s in a mess, with teachers, law enforcement officers and firefighters laid off by the score, children going without food and health care…  while he gives corporations more and bigger tax breaks so they can create jobs… Only there are no jobs; Florida has one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation.

But I don’t think Florida codgers have learned their lesson.

Like a lot of other Americans, they keep hoping against hope, waiting for some Great White Hope to give them their America back.